Warsaw Vacancy Falls to 8.5% as H1 Data Confirms Poland's Strongest Investment Half in a Decade

Two data points released this week frame the state of the CEE market heading into the second half of 2026: Warsaw office vacancy dropped to 8.5% in Q2, and Poland's total property investment volume reached €3 billion in H1, a 77% year-on-year increase matching the strongest levels of the past decade. Alongside these figures, Zagreb produced its largest domestic real estate transaction on record and Bucharest confirmed the country's largest-ever single-asset hospitality refinancing.

Market Mood

Poland's H1 2026 investment total of €3 billion across 66 transactions is the clearest single data point of the week, with retail leading activity and a significant PRS transaction contributing to the total. Warsaw's office market tightened further, with vacancy falling to 8.5% overall and just 4.8% in central zones, driven primarily by renegotiations rather than new leasing. This combination, record H1 investment volume alongside falling vacancy, indicates a market where both occupiers and investors are competing for the same shrinking pool of quality space.

Where Capital Is Moving

InterCapital Real Estate Fund Alfa completed its acquisition of Zagreb's Avenue Mall and the adjoining Avenue Center office tower from GTC for approximately €100 million, the fund's largest acquisition to date and one of the most significant Croatian domestic CRE transactions in recent memory. The 28,000 sqm retail and 7,000 sqm office combination sits at Zagreb's busiest intersection, giving InterCapital exposure to prime, income-generating commercial real estate through a domestic vehicle.

In Bucharest, Revetas Capital and funds managed by Cerberus Capital Management confirmed the €123 million refinancing of the Radisson Blu Hotel Complex with Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG, Romania's largest-ever single-asset hotel refinancing and a transaction underwritten entirely by a bank without local retail presence, a strong signal of international lender confidence in Bucharest hospitality. MLP Group confirmed its additional €100 million green notes issuance, bringing its total bond series to €400 million to fund logistics and industrial development across Europe.

Logistics activity remained dense across Poland and the Czech Republic. Harden Construction began work on a 46,000 sqm cold-chain logistics hub in Poznań for an undisclosed food logistics operator, targeting BREEAM Excellent certification. Panattoni delivered the first 25,000 sqm warehouse at Panattoni Park Szczecin VII, leveraging proximity to the German border and port infrastructure. In the Czech Republic, BMW Group's overseas logistics distribution centre opened at Ostrava Airport Multimodal Park, comprising 124,000 sqm across three new industrial halls managed by DP World. CTP expanded CTPark Česká Lípa with an 11,500 sqm facility for Saint-Gobain's Sekurit Service, reinforcing the park's role as a European auto glass distribution hub. 7R launched its first German project in Berlin's Lichtenberg district, targeting 43,000 sqm and approximately €70 million in value, marking a notable expansion of Polish developer capital into Western Europe.

In office, Echo Investment received its occupancy permit for 18,000 sqm of fully pre-let office space at the WITA complex in Kraków, anchored by Brown Brothers Harriman and OPmobility. AvaFin relocated its headquarters to the entire 24th floor of the Warsaw Trade Tower, and Addleshaw Goddard renewed its lease for over 3,200 sqm at Warsaw's Q22 tower with plans for a full ESG-aligned refurbishment.

CEE/SEE

Tesco's exploration of a sale of its entire Central European business, spanning Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia with over 22,000 employees and 561 stores, continued to develop this week and would represent one of the largest single retail divestments in the region if completed. Novarion and Hubix secured €9.5 million from UniCredit Bank for Phases E and F of The Lake Home residential development in Sibiu, part of a project that will ultimately deliver 494 apartments and 34 houses. Apsys is preparing to open the revitalised Hala Targowa market hall in Gdańsk this summer, repositioning the 19th-century structure as a food and entertainment destination with 34 units. Bucharest's residential market steadied in H1, with apartment transactions down only 2% year-on-year as developers accelerated new projects.

Slovenia and Adriatic

Tokić signed a 15-year lease for approximately 40,000 sqm of automated logistics space in Zagreb, confirming strong demand for Grade A logistics in the Zagreb metropolitan area ahead of the facility's automation in 2027. This, combined with InterCapital's Avenue Mall acquisition, marks a notably active fortnight for the Croatian capital's commercial real estate market. The Ljubljana Stock Exchange reached a record high this week, with broad-based investor optimism extending beyond equities into continued interest in Slovenian commercial property auctions and state-owned asset sales.

Outlook

The combination of falling Warsaw vacancy and record H1 Polish investment volume sets up H2 2026 as a landlord's market for prime office and logistics assets. With central Warsaw vacancy at just 4.8%, tenants seeking quality space will face increasingly limited options and upward rent pressure. The Tesco Central European divestment, if it proceeds, will be the single largest retail real estate story to watch through year-end, with implications for hundreds of retail properties across three markets. Zagreb's back-to-back landmark transactions this fortnight suggest Croatian commercial real estate is entering a more liquid phase after years of comparatively limited large-ticket activity.

_Sources

<sub>EuropaProperty
- EuropaProperty — EASTNINE ACQUIRES THE BRIDGE OFFICE BUILDING IN WARSAW — https://europaproperty.com/eastnine-acquires-the-bridge-office-building-in-warsaw/
- EuropaProperty — Radisson Blu Bucharest Secures Romania's Largest Hotel Refinancing — https://europaproperty.com/radisson-blu-bucharest-secures-romanias-largest-hotel-refinancing/
- EuropaProperty — InterCapital Real Estate Fund Acquires Zagreb's Avenue Mall and Avenue Center — https://europaproperty.com/intercapital-real-estate-fund-acquires-zagrebs-avenue-mall-and-avenue-center/
- EuropaProperty — MLP Group raises additional €100 million through green notes issuance — https://europaproperty.com/mlp-group-raises-an-additional-e100-million-through-a-green-notes-issuance/
- EuropaProperty — CTP opens distribution centre to support Saint-Gobain deliveries across Europe — https://europaproperty.com/ctp-opens-distribution-centre-to-support-saint-gobain-deliveries-across-europe/
- EuropaProperty — ITRA Relocates AvaFin to the Warsaw Trade Tower — https://europaproperty.com/itra-relocates-avafin-to-the-warsaw-trade-tower/
- EuropaProperty — Harden Construction to Build a 46,000 sqm Logistics Centre in Poznań — https://europaproperty.com/harden-construction-to-build-a-46000-sqm-logistics-centre-in-poznan/
- EuropaProperty — 7R launches first project in Germany — https://europaproperty.com/7r-launches-first-project-in-germany/
- EuropaProperty — Panattoni delivers the first warehouse at Panattoni Park Szczecin VII — https://europaproperty.com/panattoni-delivers-the-first-warehouse-at-panattoni-park-szczecin-vii/
- EuropaProperty — Addleshaw Goddard Renews Lease at Q22 Office Tower — https://europaproperty.com/addleshaw-goddard-renews-lease-at-q22-office-tower/
- EuropaProperty — Czech Investment Market Posts Strong Q2 Growth — https://europaproperty.com/czech-investment-market-posts-strong-q2-growth/</sub>

<sub>Property Forum
- Property Forum — Croatia's Tokić bets big on 40,000 sqm automated Zagreb hub — https://www.property-forum.eu/news/croatias-tokic-bets-big-on-40000-sqm-automated-zagreb-hub/21732
- Property Forum — InterCapital fund snaps up Zagreb's Avenue Mall for €100 million — https://www.property-forum.eu/news/intercapital-fund-snaps-up-zagrebs-avenue-mall-for-eur100-million/21731
- Property Forum — Tesco reportedly explores sale of Central European business — https://www.property-forum.eu/news/tesco-reportedly-explores-sale-of-central-european-business/21730
- Property Forum — Matadorka Living secures project financing from Tatra banka — https://www.property-forum.eu/news/matadorka-living-secures-project-financing-from-tatra-banka/21735
- Property Forum — Warsaw office market tightens as vacancy falls to 8.5% in Q2 2026 — https://www.property-forum.eu/news/warsaw-office-market-tightens-as-vacancy-falls-to-85-in-q2-2026/21747
- Property Forum — Poland's property market hits €3 billion in H1 2026 — https://www.property-forum.eu/news/polands-property-market-hits-eur3-billion-in-h1-2026/21751
- Property Forum — BMW Group's logistics hub opens at Ostrava Airport Multimodal Park — https://www.property-forum.eu/news/bmw-groups-logistics-hub-opens-at-ostrava-airport-multimodal-park/21752
- Property Forum — Echo's Kraków office project fully let and ready to occupy — https://www.property-forum.eu/news/echos-krakow-office-project-fully-let-and-ready-to-occupy/21743
- Property Forum — Harden Construction builds 46,000 sqm cold-chain hub in Poznań — https://www.property-forum.eu/news/harden-construction-builds-46000-sqm-cold-chain-hub-in-poznan/21742
- Property Forum — Novarion and Hubix secure €9.5 million for Sibiu project — https://www.property-forum.eu/news/novarion-and-hubix-secure-eur95-million-for-sibiu-project/21748
- Property Forum — Apsys to open revitalised Gdańsk market hall this summer — https://www.property-forum.eu/news/apsys-to-open-revitalised-gdansk-market-hall-this-summer/21749
- Property Forum — Bucharest's residential market steadies, but buyers grow more selective — https://www.property-forum.eu/news/bucharests-residential-market-steadies-but-buyers-grow-more-selective/21750</sub>

<sub>Finance.si
- Finance.si — Ljubljanska borza na rekordu. Na katero slovensko delnico bi stavili danes? — https://www.finance.si/finance-vlagatelj/ljubljanska-borza-na-rekordu-na-katero-slovensko-delnico-bi-stavili-danes/a/9049174 — Author: Vlagatelj Maks</sub>

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